Valve Surgery Risk Calculator

Preoperative CKM burden and risk model for multiorgan injury (≥2 organ systems) after valve surgery

1  Patient characteristics

Enter EuroSCORE II (in %, e.g. 2.5) to also obtain the joint model (M4 + EuroSCORE II) estimate below.

2  Predicted risk

Final model M4 (CKM + surgery + FIB-4 + CONUT + uric acid)
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Risk strata: <5% low · 5–15% intermediate · >15% high (the 5% / 15% cut-offs used in the reclassification analysis).
Research and educational use only — not a basis for clinical decisions.
Methodology and model coefficients
Predictor (enter the raw value) M4 β+ EuroSCORE II β
Intercept (β0)-5.5812-5.7755
CKM comorbidity = 1+0.3984+0.3542
CKM comorbidity ≥ 2+1.1292+0.9791
Surgical tier: intermediate+0.8574+0.8076
Surgical tier: high+1.2968+1.1294
FIB-4 1.3–2.67+0.2529+0.1686
FIB-4 > 2.67+0.8061+0.6494
CONUT, per 1 point+0.15289+0.14573
Uric acid, per 1 µmol/L+0.002349+0.002276
EuroSCORE II, per 1 percentage point—+0.18352
 
Reference category: CKM 0, low surgical tier, FIB-4 < 1.3, CONUT and uric acid at zero
(their contribution is absorbed by the intercept).

CKM = 1                     exactly one cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic comorbidity
CKM >= 2                    two or more
Surgical tier intermediate  = 1 for intermediate complexity, 0 otherwise
Surgical tier high          = 1 for high complexity, 0 otherwise
FIB-4 1.3-2.67              = 1 if FIB-4 is between 1.3 and 2.67
FIB-4 > 2.67               = 1 if FIB-4 exceeds 2.67
CONUT, uric acid            enter as raw values (no centring, no standardisation)
EuroSCORE II                enters as the percentage value; optional

logit = intercept + sum(coef x variable)
risk  = 1 / (1 + exp(-logit))
Outcome: two or more organ systems injured after valve surgery.
Model developed in 17,011 valve surgery patients from Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital and Beijing Anzhen Hospital.
CKM, cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic comorbidity burden; CONUT, Controlling Nutritional Status score; FIB-4, fibrosis-4 index.